The screenshot above comes from Page 7 of the Annual Letter 2026, published in January. In that letter, we clearly highlighted the likely timing of the US–Iran conflict after 23 February 2026 – well before it became a global headline or was priced into risk indicators. This was not a reaction to events. It was a forward call based on our macro and geopolitical cycle analysis.
Our view has not changed. We continue to expect strong market volatility until 25 March 2026, with higher probability of downside moves across major equity markets. The current environment reflects a shift in market conditions that requires active risk management, not passive holding.
Based on this outlook, our live signals subscribers positioned early. We issued short calls in:
S&P (cash) at 6945
Dow (cash) at 49500
Russell at 2675
Nasdaq at 25250
Markets have since moved lower from those levels, supporting our tactical stance.
For institutional investors managing diversified portfolios, identifying turning points before consensus can significantly impact returns. This becomes even more important when geopolitical events align with broader market cycles.
In phases like this, timing and disciplined execution matter. Markets adjust quickly to new risks, and waiting for delayed updates often means entering after the opportunity has passed. In our approach, trend direction is guided by structured geopolitical and macro timing — not by headlines.
For capital allocated across global risk assets, this is a period to prioritise capital protection, tactical positioning, and volatility management with live signals.