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IMP: Annual Letter 2020 is expected to release on 14th January 2020.
Global Stock Indices
Last Friday, American market was slightly negative. S&P500 closed at 3240 while DOW closed at 28645 and NASDAQ closed at 8771. RUSSELL closed at 1669. Today, trend is mixed. Slightly negative or positive closing is expected. On Tuesday, positive trend is expected. On Wednesday, it is a holiday. On Thursday, again positivity is indicated. On Friday, a sharp decline may be observed. In the next two weeks, considerable fall may start at any point of time.
S&P500 has support at 3227 which if breached it may open doors to 3160. It has resistance at 3252 which if crossed it may observe a new breakout. It may move up to 3275-3290.
Precious Metals
Bullion is overall positive for Monday-Thursday. Anytime, sudden spike may be observed (especially on Tuesday and Thursday). On Friday, a profit booking may be observed. Next week, it is expected to trade positive. Gold may move up to 1550-1580. From 9th/10th January 2020, we are seeing a correction in precious metals. Hence by 9th January 2020, positional traders can book profit in long.
Gold has support at 1499 and resistance at 1525. Silver has support at 17.75 and resistance at 18.32. Remain long in precious metals at lower levels.
Indian Stock Market
Indian market may trade mixed for the day. After 13.00 HRS, decline may be observed. On Tuesday, market may open lower but trend may remain mixed to positive. On 1st January 2020, mixed to positive trend may continue. On 2nd January 2020, both side trend may be observed. On 3rd January 2020, sharp decline may be observed; highly bearish signal is indicated.
Positional traders may short Nifty around 12350-12400 with S/L 12600 for target 11500 or below in January 2020.
Insights from Annual Letter 2020:
We are pretty close to the fall anticipated in stocks. Either from 6th or 13th January 2020, planetary conditions will turn negative for equities. Sudden unexpected drop is possible in global markets (including USA). This may continue with volatility. Final bottom is expected in February 2020. In March-April, uptrend is expected. From August to October, overall downtrend is predicted. Bottom will be made around October (in a similar fashion to October 2008). From March 2021, market will enter a new bullish cycle and uptrend may continue.
By October 2020, S&P500 can drop down to 2400 or below. By February 2020, we are eyeing S&P500 around 2800 or below. Similarly in Indian market, we are seeing Nifty dropping to 9300 or below by February 2020. In 2008 as well, we had clearly forecasted in public about the recession and crash in stocks. 2020 may actually prove to be worse than 2008. The US-China trade talks is in a state of dilemma which may turn sour in the near future. The economic state in USA, Russia, Saudi Arabia might deteriorate. The horoscope of China seems challenging in this time and it might be where the major impact shall be visible. India will also receive effects of the drop in global markets.